Whether you love the idea of DOGE or you hate it, this is not something we’re not going to see the end of anytime soon.
FedSavvy Strategies has been factoring potential DOGE impact and risk to future U.S. Government contracting since this started. We have connected some of the dots using this great work done by the New York Times, taking it a step further by examining FY2025 budget requests to add some finer and more pertinent detail for our audience.
Below is a series of short analyses we have done on select U.S. Government agencies with varying degrees of potential impact from DOGE. As we know, this is work happening in real time; we live in a dynamic world in which the impacts and significance could shift higher or lower based on daily actions. We are in no way taking any positions of the positive or negative impacts of potential efforts, nor are we making firm predictions. We composed this short analysis to inform you and your business on potential risks in addition to any analysis you may conduct.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
FY2025 Budget Request: $25.3 billion
Potential DOGE Driven Cuts: $1.3 billion or 5 percent of NASA’s budget.
Overall Severity: Low
Summary: The NASA programs that are most proportionately targeted is the Office of STEM Engagement and the Science Mission Directorate (SMD).
What is Affected?
| NASA Program or Line Item | What is it? | Purpose? | Potential value | Overall budget | Potential reduction |
| Aeronautics | Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) | NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) and its mission to improve efficiency and reduce the noise and emissions of commercial aircraft; advance the safety, capacity, and efficiency of air transportation; and enhance aviation as an economic engine. | $57,000,000 | $935,000,000 | 6.10% |
| Congressionally Directed Programs | Unknown | Unknown | $57,000,000 | Unknown | Unknown |
| Exploration | Space Operations Mission Directorate | Space Operations covers ISS, space transportation, space and flight support, commercial LEO development. This appears to specifically cut the exploration line item. | $15,000,000 | $4,389,700,000 | 0.34% |
| Space Operations | Space Operations Mission Directorate | Space Operations covers ISS, space transportation, space and flight support, commercial LEO development. This appears to specifically cut the exploration line item. | $53,000,000 | $4,389,700,000 | 1.21% |
| Mission Support | Unknown | Unknown | $14,000,000 | Unknown | Unknown |
| Office of STEM Engagement (OSTEM) | STEM Engagement | The Office of STEM Engagement (OSTEM) leads the agency’s STEM engagement function, providing strategic guidance and direction in partnership with the mission directorates. | $99,000,000 | $143,500,000 | 68.99% |
| Science | Science Mission Directorate (SMD) | The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) pursues NASA’s strategic objectives using aircraft, balloon, and spaceflight programs to enable the execution of both remote-sensing and in-situ investigations. | $922,000,000 | $7,565,700,000 | 12.19% |
| Space Technology | Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) | NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) develops new space technologies to support NASA missions, commercial spaceflight, and other government agencies. STMD’s goal is to ensure American leadership in aerospace. | $67,000,000 | $1,193,000,000 | 5.62% |
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
FY2025 Budget Request: $108 billion
Potential DOGE Driven Cuts: By the numbers it is $51 billion, however this is skewed because of the intense targeting of FEMA and FEMA related grants and more importantly the wildly varying disaster related funding.
Overall Severity: Moderate
Summary: When we examine DHS, the real DOGE impact is potentially large in total, but as we examine each agency under DHS, most are likely to be unscathed. FEMA’s funding is highly variable due to disaster related funding and how it is was vaguely targeted by DOGE.
We will only highlight which DHS agencies are potentially going to be affected by what is known about DOGE (thus far). FEMA is by far the most politically charged agency with respect to how it is funded and how those funds are used. This is an evolving story.
What is Affected?
| DHS Agency | What is being heavily scrutinized? | FY2025 Budget Request | DOGE Targeted Funding | DOGE Potential Impact |
| FEMA | Assistance to Firefighters Grant Disaster Grants: Public Assistance (Presidentially Declared Disasters) Emergency Management Performance Grants Federal Disaster Assistance to Individuals and Households in Presidential Declared Disaster Areas Flood Insurance Flood Mitigation Assistance Hazard Mitigation Grant Non-Profit Security Program Shelter and Services Program Shelter and Services Program (SSP-C) Staffing for Adequate Fire and Emergency Response (SAFER) | $33,089,228,000 | $50,610,625,000* Yes, we know this math does not work. The programs reported have some generic “plug figures” so the takeaway here is FEMA is a target at large. This is a “political football” and only time will tell the true fate of FEMA. The short version is FEMA is heavily targeted. | 100% |
| CWMD | Homeland Security Biowatch Program National Nuclear Forensics Expertise Development Program Securing the Cities Program | $418,022,000 | $64,000,000 | 15.3% |
| CISA | There are several grant programs to foster education and training and state, local and tribal levels of government that are being targeted. Similarly, information sharing investments are being targeted. | $3,009,047,000 | $358,550,000 | 11.9% |
| S&T | There is some concern here with the majority of the DOGE targeting directed towards the sharing of technology and information with universities for research and development. | $836,108,000 | $49,000,000 | 5.9% |
| USCG | There are a few DOGE targeted cuts here with boating safety programs. | $13,779,731,000 | $126,000,000 | 0.9% |
| USSS | A single target for the National Computer Forensics Institute Facility Expansion Grant Program. | $3,206,381,000 | $22,000,000 | 0.7% |
| ICE | A single target for a case management pilot program. | $9,695,379,000 | $15,000,000 | 0.2% |
U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)
FY2025 Budget Request: $369.3 billion
Potential DOGE Driven Cuts: $233 billion or 64 percent of the overall requested budget.
Overall severity: High
Summary: 44 VA programs and budget items are targeted. Many of the large ticket items are veteran benefits programs. Note that the VA executes a nearly $1 billion Research and Development budget among its notable programs is prosthetics and medical research such as cancer research. Of course, there is a myriad of support contractors around benefits processing and especially IT systems supporting benefits programs.
What are the Largest Programs Impacted?
| VA Budget or Program | Potential value |
| Veterans Compensation for Service-Connected Disability | $157,600,000,000 |
| Veterans Housing Guaranteed and Insured Loans | $42,900,000,000 |
| Veterans Dependency and Indemnity Compensation for Service-Connected Death | $10,500,000,000 |
| Post-9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance | $8,200,000,000 |
| Pension for Non-Service-Connected Disability for Veterans | $2,000,000,000 |
| Survivors and Dependents Educational Assistance | $1,900,000,000 |
| CHAMPVA | $1,800,000,000 |
| Veterans State Nursing Home Care | $1,700,000,000 |
| Pension to Veterans Surviving Spouses, and Children | $1,100,000,000 |
| Veteran Readiness and Employment | $1,000,000,000 |
| Research and Development | $943,000,000 |
UPDATE on February 28, 2025: In the spirit of ever ongoing change, more derails have been shared on cuts that are paused and planned. See this article. Note the table of potential contracts targeted embedded in the article.
The FedSavvy Takeaway
- NASA is generally safe unless you are involved in science programs or perhaps STEM education.
- Most agencies in DHS are well positioned to maintain their budgets except FEMA
- However, CISA and CWMD have risks which is interesting as neither has a terribly large budget compared to most of DHS and both would be argued as vital to national security against cyber and WMD threats
- The VA’s many benefit programs and by extension contracts that support such programs may be at significant risk which is peculiar as normally disrupting veterans benefits and care is a political “third rail” few have survived touching.
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