Building a Winning GovCon Pipeline with Market Intelligence

Introduction 

Building an opportunity pipeline is a critical task to execute the business’s broader growth strategy. We have many paid database services that (in theory) support this function. All too many of them, however, only help you filter basic data without considering the fit or other nuanced aspects of a potential opportunity to a business and its capabilities and overall growth strategy.    

Of course, we live in the dawn of the era of generative AI tools which are designed to make our lives as easy as possible. And these tools have their purposes; they can clean up data, do basic background research, draft documents based on prompts and data. In short, they can accelerate the timeline to complete your work, but they are not going to think for you (yet). 

Utilizing Human Driven Analysis for Higher Confidence in Planning and Execution 

Even in the age of AI, wisdom and a methodical analysis still lead to higher confidence in planning and execution than AI tools can. While database and GenAI tools can relieve you of some menial tasks, they fall short when it comes to helping you analyze current or potential customers and identify related opportunities. Humans still have the advantage there. Why? 

• Humans have real-world experiences to understand how one small win can build into bigger wins much like using a progression of lily pads to leap from opportunity to opportunity win for your end game. 

•  Humans are better at evaluating the strength of entry barriers—understanding which ones can be realistically overcome and which would require significant cost and risk to bypass. 

• The right team of analysts is willing to tell you what you may not want to hear—but need to hear—like providing an honest assessment of realistic opportunities and what it will take to succeed. 

While GenAI programs tend to be people pleasers and tell you what you want to hear, the right team of analysts have the experience to inform you which barriers are addressable and which are not. 

It is worth noting that many consultants and even internal staff want to paint a picture of endless opportunity with untold riches to be discovered.   

Evaluating Markets for Realistic Opportunities 

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain 

Simple numbers and statistics never tell the whole story – let alone an accurate one. There are more effective means to measure viability of a market and subsequent opportunities.   

• What is the outsourced contracting spending vs. just the top line budget? 
• Can you define agency strategic plans, objectives and programs that align with what your business does? 

Just pulling basic opportunities out of a database does NOT address these concerns to truly test fit and viability of your business’s plan to expand in a current market or pursue a new one!  We need to explore the nexus of: 

• Outsourced spending…quantifiable measures of relevant outsourced spending 
• Verifiable federal programs tied to funding  
• Agency objectives  
• What your business does  

…to really understand if a market is a good fit. We have had experience with agencies that look like a great fit for a client with agency mission, objectives and programs, only to be unraveled by the fact that the agency does NOT outsource what the business does. While this does not mean that they could not pitch their products and services to the agency to win a new contract, it does mean that the path and price to do so is long and expensive. As the saying goes, the “juice may not be worth the squeeze.” 

Evaluating Opportunities   

This gets much more tactical in nature. However, a realistic assessment of an opportunity is crucial and not terribly difficult to do. We ask questions such as: 

• What is the actual spending and likely spending vs. the contract ceiling? There is nothing worse than being misled about the value of an opportunity to get hopes up and then have them come crashing down. 
• What are the opportunity specific barriers to entry? 
  • Contract vehicle 
  • Set-asides 
  • Timing to wage a competent pursuit 
  • Scopes of work with many requirements not possible for the client 
• Is the contract held by an incumbent that is known to be very competitive and strong in the work and customer?   
• Will the contract scope likely change over time based on the direction on the agency’s evolving mission and environment? 
• Is this a starter opportunity that can be pursued right now or is this one that needs to be followed by some wins with the agency to be a more credible pursuit? 

It is these and more key analytical questions that we pose to have a realistic understanding of an opportunity’s fit. 

A Methodical and Ruthlessly Pragmatic Approach is Best 

Any semi-conscious human can do a data dump of contracting opportunities from a database into a pipeline. There is a deceptive and insidious lure to this “easy button.” Ask yourself a simple question: 

Have you ever accomplished anything in life or business that did not require smarts, grit and a willingness to outwork and outwit your competitors?   

Odds are you did not hit the lottery and win a bazillion dollars by sheer dumb luck. Doing good market intelligence is no different. 

This is why we embrace the intelligence process to properly prospect for opportunities and to evaluate markets in an objective manner. Using a disciplined and iterative approach such as the one illustrated below yields results better than a quick data dump.

By the way, there are many who will claim this level of discipline.  You should consider very carefully if a person or organization merely mimic this discipline through pretty words or they hire and operate with this level of rigor as a core operating principle.  Pro-tip: armies of 1099s and staff augmentation firms are not going to pull this off.  😉    

Be Smart and Make the Time to Do Real Market Intelligence 

While quick database downloads can be done, has it ever really yielded a competent plan? Or did that “quick and easy” approach give you a false sense of security that you had a solid pipeline while in fact, you had built a house on a foundation of quicksand?  

There are some useful resources available to do basic research. The real work gets done by those who know how to solve market intelligence problems because they have (1) domain knowledge, (2) a system that works, and (3) the objectivity to state market appeal and opportunities for what they are…good or bad.   

Check out our overview of market intelligence today. Are you rethinking your market expansion plans? Contact us for an introductory discussion to define your plans, goals and challenges. You’ll speak with our Managing Principal, Brian Lindholm, who has 25+years of experience and billions of dollars of wins behind him.     

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